What is the most noteworthy signal in the organic silicon market in the second half of 2026? A latest research report from CITIC Securities provides a clear judgment: organic silicon prices are expected to operate in the range of RMB 11,500–13,000/ton, still at relatively low levels, with the downstream deep-processing industry poised to continue benefiting .

Why Can't Prices "Rise"?

In the first half of 2026, organic silicon prices warmed up thanks to industry-coordinated production cuts and cost-side support, leading to significant profit recovery for leading enterprises such as Dongyue Silicone. However, prices began to soften after June. CITIC Securities analysis suggests that while the supply side has genuinely slowed, the industry has not experienced deep losses, making self-driven capacity clearance difficult. The current "anti-involution" policy provides limited support for prices .

Looking at the latest market data, on August 26, the mainstream market quotation for organic silicon DMC stood at RMB 13,400–14,000/ton (delivered, net of water), essentially flat with the average price in the first half of the year. Industry analysts point out that the second half of 2026 will be more heavily tested by the interplay of supply and demand dynamics .

Downstream Enterprises: A "Cost-Dividend Period"

For downstream deep-processing enterprises, low raw material prices mean reduced cost pressure and expanded profit margins. The CITIC Securities research report explicitly recommends focusing on "companies in the silicon-based materials industry that are expanding into high-growth downstream sectors," arguing that the current low prices of organic silicon intermediates are favorable for downstream deep-processing enterprises .

On the demand side, while the traditional construction sector remains weak, demand in the new energy sector—photovoltaics and electric vehicles—continues to surge. The rapid development of the AI industry and robotics is also bringing incremental demand for organic silicon. Emerging applications such as robot skin and sealing and thermal-conductive components for AI devices are steadily growing in volume .

Investment Logic: Focus on High-Growth Downstream Sectors

Market analysis suggests that the current areas of higher prosperity within the organic silicon industry are concentrated in two main directions: first, the lithium battery and photovoltaic new energy fields, which maintain high demand growth; and second, the semiconductor chip sector, which offers broad domestic substitution potential .

CITIC Securities also cautions on potential risks: the "anti-involution" efforts in the organic silicon industry may fall short of expectations, export growth may underperform, and intensifying industry competition could still impact price trends .

For downstream enterprises, the window of low raw material prices will not last forever. How to complete product upgrades and secure market positioning before prices recover is a question worth deep consideration.

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