Entering late September, the silicone market has reached a critical juncture ahead of the traditional peak season. Current mainstream product price centers have shifted notably higher compared to the beginning of the month, with the overall market exhibiting a bullish-bearish tug-of-war characterized by "tight supply, cost pressure, and cautious demand."

In terms of price performance, as of September 20, mainstream silicone DMC quotations have stabilized at 14,700–15,000 RMB/ton (purified water, tax-inclusive, delivered), raw rubber at 15,500–15,700 RMB/ton, 107 silicone rubber at 14,700–15,000 RMB/ton (drum, tax-inclusive, delivered), and domestic dimethyl silicone oil at 16,000–16,200 RMB/ton. Compared with the end of August, DMC has accumulated a price increase approaching 1,000 RMB, with the price floor continuing to be consolidated.

On the supply side, the industry operating rate has recently risen to around 65%, but most monomer plants have pre-sale orders booked through mid-October, with some enterprises temporarily suspending quotations after reaching full order capacity. The effects of earlier coordinated industry production cuts continue to manifest, with monomer plant inventories at year-low levels, providing strong support for producers to hold prices firm. It is worth noting that although some facility loads have increased, the practice of matching high and low prices in transactions is driving the conversion of earlier low-priced orders toward higher-priced supply, and monomer plants' willingness to defend price floors remains strong.

Cost-side pressure cannot be overlooked. Raw material methanol prices continue to operate at high levels under the dual influence of geopolitical factors and supply contraction, with Shandong methanol prices accumulating a month-to-date increase exceeding 27%, pushing DMC production costs up by approximately 780 RMB/ton. Continuous cost compression of profit margins has become the subsequent driving force behind DMC price increases.

The demand side shows divergence. Downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises objectively have pre-holiday restocking needs, but constrained by factors such as insufficient orders of their own and hindered downstream cost transmission, their inclination to chase high prices has become cautious, with most focusing on rigid-demand procurement and small-volume, on-demand purchases. The trading segment also holds divergent views on the post-holiday market, with some traders having already moved to lock in profits.

Overall, the short-term silicone market is likely to exhibit a trend of "steady with a slightly strong bias and narrowing gains." If mid- and downstream inventories are drawn down to target levels before the National Day holiday and concentrated pre-holiday restocking materializes, there is room for price centers to continue testing upward; conversely, if stockpiling intensity is weak, the market will shift into high-level range-bound consolidation. It is recommended that downstream enterprises reasonably arrange procurement plans based on their own order rhythms, avoiding blind pursuit of high prices or excessive wait-and-see.

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